Forex Flash: EUR/USD rally created a more solid floor – UniCredit

The EUR/USD rallied strongly during the week and rose from Monday’s low to Thursday’s high, 335 pips. “Some consolidation may now be the case, but his week’s rally has at least created a more solid floor, which should in turn make a break below 1.40 less probable,” wrote Roberto Mialich, analyst at UniCredit Bank in Milan. According to him, a solution to the US debt ceiling problem should likely favor EUR/USD because of a positive response by Wall Street. “ Thus, provided risk stays on, our target of 1.46 for 3Q11 may be reached earlier than we had anticipated.” The EUR/USD is retreating from 1.4440, moving further away from 2-week highs and trimming part of yesterday's gains. The pair is pulling back below 1.4400 and recently broke below 1.4375 and fell to 1.4360, reaching a fresh daily low. "The European shared currency snapped its earlier advance after lower-than-expected German report while the US dollar rebounded on hopes debt ceiling problem would be resolved. 

At the moment, the pair is trading barely above session lows, posting the first daily decline since the beginning of the week. 

EUR/USD Waiting for Politicians to Respond

This morning the EUR/USD rate is lower than it was a week ago – i.e. 140.50 against 142 a week ago. The debt challenges set the agenda in Europe as well as in the US. We expect that this will also be the case this week. The stress test of the banks held no big surprises, but nevertheless the market opens in a sour tone, since uncertainty prevails on both sides of the Atlantic. In Europe impatient financial market participants are waiting for a co-ordinated plan from the politicians and the ECB as to how to solve the debt crisis and the banks’ problems. An EU summit is scheduled for Thursday, which will hopefully be fruitful. Time will show whether it will be a repurchase, a restructuring or a combination. As long as nothing happens, uncertainty grows, and the euro is adversely affected.

The US is struggling with its public finances. Last week Moody’s and S&P warned about early downgrades of the US credit rating, unless an agreement is made to stabilise the ratio between debt and GDP for the medium term. Initially we are looking forward to Friday when Obama will hopefully manage to reach a political agreement. In the event of a downgrade, it is doubtful to what degree the US dollar will actually be adversely affected. This is based on the thought that the US dollar will still act as a safe-haven despite a slightly lower credit rating.

Overnight the EUR/CHF rate set a low at 113.74, but this morning the rate has returned to the level around 114.20. The SNB is coming under pressure, which is reflected in the fact that Swiss enterprises are considering the possibility of paying wages and salaries in the euro. The downtrend is intact, and the next test is the support level at 113.65.


EUR/USD (SELL): The EUR/USD trend is down.          
EUR/CHF (NEUTRAL): New low. New points of support. 112.50 and 110.00.   
EUR/GBP (NEUTRAL): EUR/GBP has fallen further to 87.30. We maintain our NEUTRAL recommendation but we are waiting for 86-86.50 for a Buy recommendation, if any.

US dollar: Moody's helps deal a double blow

The euro dollar exchange rate is 0.396% higher on the day with 1 EUR = 1.4201 USD at 9 AM in London. The pound dollar exchange rate is 0.087% higher with 1 GBP = 1.6118 USD. The dollar exchange rate was dealt a double blow over the past 12 hours. Moody’s put the US sovereign rating on review for a possible downgrade, citing a lack of progress in negotiations on raising the US debt ceiling. The dollar sold off in response, and losses were especially pronounced against the JPY and the CHF. Earlier, Fed Chairman Bernanke’s testimony to Congress set a relatively dovish tone and comments suggesting that the option for further
stimulus remains open stoked fears of another round of QE. Bernanke’s speech largely repeated themes from his June 22 comments but the Fed is clearly keeping an open stance on policy until a significant trend in data emerges. "While Fed Chairman Bernanke's Congressional testimony stuck largely to a familiar script on the still cautious outlook, markets were quick to react when he explicitly mentioned the possibility of further quantitative easing. What was overlooked were his remarks about Fed research suggesting that QE2 may only have lowered long-term interest rates by 10-30bp and raised jobs by some 30k per month. If this is all QE2 could do, why would another round of QE hold much promise for the economy? For further details, please see “What Promise In QE3?” says Gareth Berry at UBS. Elsewhere, the euro shook off uncertainty over the timing of a potential emergency meeting in the Eurozone and a Fitch downgrade of Greece. EURUSD traded 1.4131-1.4282. USDJPY traded 78.47-79.61. Eurozone core CPI and US jobless claims are due.

Forex - EUR/USD close to 5-month low on debt contagion fears

The euro was hovering close to a five-month low against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, pressured by growing concerns that the euro zone’s debt crisis was spreading to Italy as government bond yields rose sharply. EUR/USD hit 1.3838 during European early afternoon trade, the pair’s lowest since March 11; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.3924, shedding 0.75%. The pair was likely to find support at 1.3751, the low of March 11 and resistance at 1.4061, the days high. Earlier in the day, the cost of insuring Spanish, Portuguese and Greek sovereign debt against default surged to euro-lifetime highs, while 10-year Italian bond yields rose to more than 6% for the first time since the inception of the single currency. Also Tuesday, Dutch Finance Minister Jan Kees de Jager said the possibility of a partial default by Greece in order to put the country’s debt on a more sustainable footing could no longer be ruled out, despite the European Central Bank’s opposition to such a move. The single currency also came under pressure after International Monetary Fund head Christine Lagarde said the institution was not ready to discuss a second bailout package for Greece. Elsewhere, the euro was trading close to a record low against the Swiss franc, with EUR/CHF tumbling 1.14% to hit 1.1583. Later in the day, finance ministers from all 27 European Union nations were to meet to discuss measures to contain the debt crisis. Options included increasing the size and flexibility of the euro zone’s bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility and lengthening the maturities of loans and lowering interest rates for bailed out countries. 

EUR/USD Open 1.4362 High 1.4374 Low 1.4219 Close 1.4356

On Thursday the Euro/Dollar continued decreasing, even after ECB conference, later jumped with 155 pips. The European currency appreciated from 1.4219 to 1.4374 yesterday, matching the positive Interbank sentiment projection at nearly +3%, closing the day at 1.4356. This morning the European is trading quietly and within yesterday's range for now. On the 1 hour chart new range trading has emerged, while on the 3 hour chart trading remains within wide range. Break above the nearest resistance and yesterday's top at 1.4374 may trigger further strengthening of the Euro. Going bellow yesterday's bottom and first support at 1.4219, however, would confirm continuation of the bearish trend, towards next important objective downwards 1.4111. Today's focus is on Germany Current account and Trade balance, and Italy Industrial production, at 6 and 8 GMT respectively. Quotes are moving about in line with the crossing 20 and 50 EMA on the 1 hour chart, indicating neutral market. The value of the RSI indicator is negative and declining, MACD is neutral and quiet, while CCI is in line with the 100 line on the 1 hour chart, giving overall light short signals.
Technical resistance levels: 1.4374 1.4482 1.4600
Technical support levels: 1.4219 1.4111 1.4000

Forex: EUR/USD moving towards 1.4300

Pronounced downward pressure on the EUR/USD continues ahead of the US session, with the pair extending to a week-long low of 1.4316 as it appears to target the technical support level of 1.4300. Overall the pair is off around 100 pips from the day´s opening price, and around 150 from a daily high of 1.4465. Giving a more technical perspective, 4 hours chart shows the bearish momentum increasing with current candle opening below 200 EMA, and both indicators heading south; smaller time frames show extreme oversold conditions suggesting some consolidation before further slides: expect the pair to remain trading below 1.4390 price zone, while a downside acceleration and a break below 1.4315, should trigger a continuation rally towards 1.4250 strong support zone, probable bottom for today. 

Forex: EUR/USD consolidates near session lows

The hegemonic currency lost ground against the Greenback on Tuesday, extending its retreat from a 1-month high struck on Monday at 1.4576 on widespread Dollar strength amid risk aversion. However, after the Asian session 90-pip slide, EUR/USD bottomed out at 1.4459 and has spent the last trading hours consolidating in a tight range right above that level. At time of writing, EUR/USD is trading at the 1.4470 area, where it records a 0.46% loss on the day. The EUR is falling against the USD for first time in 7 days. Technical studies show that supports are seen at 1.4449 and then at 1.4405 which is the 55DMA, followed by the 10DMA line at 1.4364. On the other hand, resistance levels are seen at 1.4564, 1.4655 and then at the 21Day Upper Bollinger Level at 1.4693.

FOREX: Euro Rises to Three-Week High Versus Dollar on Greek Debt, ECB Rate Views

The euro climbed to the highest in almost three weeks against the dollar on prospects the European Central Bank will increase interest rates next week to curb inflation as the risk of an immediate Greek default subsides.

The 17-nation currency strengthened to a 15-month high against the pound amid bets the Bank of England will be restrained in increasing interest rates compared with the ECB. Higher-yielding currencies advanced against the Swiss franc after German financial firms agreed on a draft proposal to roll over Greek debt holdings, according to people familiar with the plan. The Dollar Index weakened for a fourth day, the longest streak since April.

“There’s an element of optimism after yesterday’s vote and amid headlines surrounding Germany even though specifics are lacking,” said Vassili Serebriakov, a currency strategist at Wells Fargo & Co. in New York.

The euro rose 0.3 percent to $1.4480 at 9:02 a.m. in New York. It earlier strengthened to $1.4521, the highest level since June 10. The euro slipped 0.3 percent versus the Japanese currency to 116.28 yen after advancing as much as 0.4 percent. The dollar fell 0.6 percent to 80.28 yen from 80.78. The euro has gained 0.6 percent against the dollar this month and is up 2.3 percent in the quarter that ends today.

Greece’s Vote

Luxembourg’s Jean-Claude Juncker, who leads a group of euro-area finance ministers, said the Greek parliament’s decision yesterday paves the way for payment of the next aid installment from the region’s governments and the International Monetary Fund. The Swiss franc, a traditional haven from financial turmoil, fell against 14 of 16 major peers. It depreciated 0.3 percent against the euro to 1.2082 and was little changed against the dollar 83.40 centimes per dollar, from 83.42. German firms will commit to providing financing for a Greek aid package and an announcement is planned this afternoon, said people who declined to be identified because the talks are private. The draft could still be changed during a meeting today with Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble and top industry executives, the people said. Even amid the debt crisis, the euro has proved the third best performer this year, supported by the ECB’s first rate rise in three years in April. It trailed only the Swiss franc and the Norwegian krone among 17 currencies.

Euro: Greek Parliament Passes Vote – EUR/USD Still Capped

Yes is the answer. The Greek parliament said “yes” on the first vote of the austerity measures. Violence continues outside the parliament.

EUR/USD now trades at 1.4391. Trading is very very choppy, but the pair stays away from the resistance line it challenged earlier. The vote hasn’t been completed yet, but there is already a majority.

Update: Vote completed. Speaker of the house announcing it. The score is 155:138. Votes went according to party lines, apart from 1 member of the ruling party that voted against, and one member of the opposition that voted for the measures. One member of the ruling Pasok party, Kourouplis, that voted against the measures, was immediately thrown out of the party after the vote. Also the opposition member was kicked out of her party for voting for austerity.Euro/dollar traded just under the 1.4450 resistance line before the vote. It moved up towards this line as it became apparent that the vote will pass: members of the Pasok party moved in line with the government, which also got support from the opposition.

Votes on implementation laws are expected tomorrow.

FOREX-Euro Near Week High on Bets ECB to Lift Rates

The euro was 0.3 percent from a one- week high against the dollar on speculation the European Central Bank will raise interest rates next week even as Greece struggles to avoid a default.

The 17-nation currency traded near a two-week high against the yen after ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet yesterday said policy makers are in "strong vigilance mode," boosting rate- increase expectations. Greece’s parliament today will vote on an austerity package needed to secure more financial aid. The dollar reached the strongest level against the yen in three weeks yesterday as Treasury yields jumped, enhancing the allure of U.S. assets.

“The euro’s got a bit more upside from here," said Joseph Capurso, a currency strategist in Sydney at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, the nation’s biggest lender. "While we hear a lot about Greece, it’s really a lot of noise because the bottom line is that the European economy is strong enough to get the ECB raising rates. The euro was at $1.4355 at 8:17 a.m. in Tokyo from $1.4371 in New York yesterday, when it reached $1.4397, the highest since June 22. It’s down 0.3 percent against the greenback this month and up 1.4 percent this quarter. The euro may reach $1.44 in the next day and will head toward $1.50 by the end of September, Capurso said.

The euro was at 116.41 yen from 116.58, after reaching 116.67 yen yesterday, the highest since June 14. The dollar fetched 81.10 yen from 81.12. It reached 81.27 yen yesterday, the strongest since June 2.

Anchor Inflation

The ECB raised its benchmark rate in April for the first time in almost three years, lifting it by a quarter point to 1.25 percent. The central bank will meet on July 7.

‘‘We’re taking the decision progressively to anchor inflation expectations,” Trichet said at a press conference in Amsterdam following a seminar with central bankers from the Asia-Pacific region. “As far as we’re concerned, we’re in strong vigilance mode,” he said, repeating a phrase the ECB uses to indicate a rate increase is imminent.

Greek lawmakers will vote on the austerity package and again later on a measure to implement it. Prime Minister George Papandreou won a confidence vote in parliament last week by a vote of 155-143.

Treasury 10-year yields gained 10 basis points to 3.03 percent yesterday, increasing the appeal of U.S. bonds to international investors. The difference between 10-year yields in the U.S. and Japan widened to 1.94 percentage points, the most since June 14, according Bloomberg data.

EUR/USD Technical Outlook Remains Volatile Ahead of Greek Vote

The EUR/USD rose above the 1.4300 figure in Asian and early European trade spurred higher by growing confidence that Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou will be able to pass the austerity legislation in Parliament, while economic data from Germany surprised to the upside helping to lift risk appetite. Cable however was mired under the 1.6000 level as weaker Q1 GDP readings and wider Current Account report capped any rally in the pair.

In Greece debate continued ahead of the crucial vote on austerity scheduled for tomorrow, with much of the country now on general strike as unions protested the proposed measures. Some analysts have estimated that the austerity cuts could be as large as 2000 euros per family per year - a massive hit to aggregate demand that will no doubt hurt growth going forward.

Nevertheless, most analysts believe that Mr. Papandreou will be able to squeeze by with a yes vote, aided by the opposition New Democratic party. On Monday ND deputy Elsa Papdimitriou indicated that she may vote for the austerity measures despite the reservations of her party, stating that now was the time to put the good of the nation above party interests.

In economic news German GFK Consumer Sentiment reading for July printed much better than forecast at 5.7 versus 5.3 indicating that the booming economy within Europe's core is having a positive impact on the consumer psyche despite the turmoil created by the peripheral debt crisis. The data showed improvement in all sub-indixes with economic expectations rising to 50.3 vs. 46.1 in May, income expectations climbing to 44.6 from 25.9 while propensity to buy increased to 35.1 vs. 31.5.

The positive news on the consumer sentiment front could translate into better results in German Retail Sales which has been highly disappointing in Q2 of this year, contracting for two out of the past three months. German Retail Sales are projected to rise 0.7% versus 0.3% the month prior. The improvement in GFK Consumer sentiment index also hints at continued strength in German labor markets with unemployment expected to decline another -17K from -8K last month.

The data was not nearly as supportive in UK where the Q1 GDP printed at 1.6% vs. 1.8% eyed while the Current Account blew out to -9.4B vs. -5.0B projected. The breakdown of data showed the first decline in Industrial Production since Q3 2009 while disposable income fell for the second consecutive quarter. The news confirms the downward bias of the BoE and unless Q3 data begins to show marked improvement in overall economic activity the UK central bank is likely to remain stationary for the rest of the year. Cable fell towards the 1.5950 level in the aftermath of the report and threatens to drop through the 1.5900 figure as the day proceeds if risk flows turn negative as appetite for the pair continues to diminish.

EUR/USD Technical Outlook: Elliott Waves Analysis

UR/USD:  Wave (B) ended at 1.5145 and wave I of (C) ended at 1.1876

Although the single currency recovered initially last week, renewed selling interest did emerge as expected (we recommended to sell euro again at 1.4400) and has fallen again from 1.4442, indicated downside target at 1.4150 has been met later last week (with 250 points profit) and price fell to as low as 1.4103 today. We are keeping our view that rebound from 1.3970 has ended at 1.4696 and bearishness remains for another decline later, a break of support at 1.4073 would extend weakness to 1.4000 but break of 1.3970 support is needed to confirm decline from 1.4940 top has resumed and extend weakness towards 1.3900 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2860-1.4940).

Our preferred count on the daily chart remains that a wave (II) from 1.2329 ended at 1.5145 with A-leg ended at 1.4720, followed by wave B at 1.2457, the wave C from there was also a 3 legged move and is labeled as (a): 1.3739, (b): 1.2885, the wave iii of the 5-waver (c) from 1.2885 has ended at 1.4339 and wave iv is a triangle ended at 1.3878 and wave v formed a top at 1.5145.

The decline from there is a 5-waver (C) with minor wave (i) of I of (C) ended at 1.4218 with wave (ii) ended at 1.4580, wave (iii) ended at 1.3267 and wave (iv) ended at 1.3692 and wave (v) ended at 1.1876, this is also the low of wave I of (C) and wave II has commenced from there with (a) leg ended at 1.3334, (b) leg ended at 1.2588 and (c) leg ended at 1.4283 which is only the first set of a complex correction wave II, followed by wave (x) at 1.2860, hence, 2nd wave (a) has ended at 1.4940 and correction in 2nd (b) to 1.3900 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2860 to 1.4940) would be seen.

On the upside, whilst initial recovery to 1.4300 cannot be ruled out, said resistance at 1.4442 should limit upside and bring another decline later. Only a daily close above 1.4498 would dampen our bearishness and prolong consolidation, risk gain to 1.4550/60 and possibly 1.4600. Looking ahead, a sustained breach of 1.4696 is needed to signal the retreat from 1.4940 has ended at 1.3968 and further gain to 1.4800 would follow. Looking ahead, above 1.4800 is needed to signal (b) leg has ended at 1.3968 and bring a retest of 1.4940, otherwise, the (b) leg shall take more time to unfold and another retreat in c leg of (b) would take place.

Greeks May Not Be Able to Stick With Austerity Plan

EUR/USD Technical Analysis Outlook 06.24: Weakness in Global Economy Cause Run to Safety‎

The Euro has posted a 100-pip spike higher during the European session, bouncing up from 1.4200 low after better than expected German Business Climate data, to be rejected at 1.4300, and retreat all the way down to fresh day lows at 1.4190.
The Euro is pushing against 1.4200 (day low), with next potential support levels below here, at 1.4125 (Jun 17/23 lows) and 1.4070 (Jun 16 low). On the upside, resistance levels are 1.4305 (day high), and above here, 1.4345/50 (Jun 22 lows) and 1.4435/40 (Jun 21/22 highs).
Technical indicators show the pair losing momentum, aiming to revisit 1.4130 area: "Euro neck that loses momentum quickly towards 1.4200. Having been capped by 20 SMA in the 4 hours chart, and with indicators below their midlines, bearish short term trend persist as long as below 1.4220 area, heading towards the 1.4130 area, yesterday's low."

FOREX :Technical Outlook 06.23

The USD recovery which started overnight with the fall in cable has continued slowly in Asia with USD/JPY finally finding a bit of strength and EUR/USD triggering stops below 1.4300 only to find the fall stalled by Sovereign bids.

Bernanke dismissed any possibilities of QE3 in his overnight statement and this led to a revival in the fortunes of the USD. EUR/USD started falling in NY after topping out ahead of very heavy selling interest towards 1.4450. Asia opened around 1.4350 and it’s been a gradual slide lower with stops getting triggered below 1.4300 mid-morning. Asian central bank bids around 1.4290 helped stall bearish momentum. Ranges: 1.4283/1.4351
USD/JPY finally moved after what’s seemed like ages. It rallied to an intraday high of 80.64 on USD short-covering sentiment but corporate offers were steady near the highs. Ranges: 80.24/64
Cable has again been weak, drifting gradually lower as the market gets to grip with the possibility of more quantitative easing. Sterling remains weak on the crosses. Ranges: 1.6016/70, EUR/GBP .8910/32
AUD fell in line with the cable and EUR/USD and also lost ground against the NZD. The poor China PMI failed to drive the AUD/USD below strong bids at 1.0530. Ranges: 1.0528/71

EUR/USD Technical Outlook: Mid-Day Outlook

With 1.4290 minor support intact, intraday bias remains cautiously on the upside and further rise should be seen to upper trend line resistance (now at 1.4593). Note that EUR/USD is possibly forming a triangle pattern inside converging range of 1.3969/4939. An upside break out will be mildly in favor as long as 1.3969 support holds. Further break of 1.4695 resistance will be the first signal of up trend resumption for another high above 1.4939. On the downside, though, below 1.4190 minor support will turn bias neutral first. Further break of 1.4073 will flip bias back to the downside for 1.3969 and below instead.
In the bigger picture, EUR/USD is still trading above medium term trend line support from 1.1875 (now at 1.3606) and thus, rise from there should still be in progress. We'd continue to favor the bullish case that correction from 1.6039 has completed with three waves down to 1.1875 already and. Above 1.4938 will target 1.5143 resistance first. Break will affirm the bullish case of long term up trend resumption for another high above 1.6039. However, sustained trading below the mentioned trend line support will indicate that there should at least be one more medium term decline, possibly for below 1.1875, before correction from 1.6039 completes.

Dollar weakens ahead of Greek vote

The U.S. dollar declined against the euro on Tuesday ahead of a key vote in the Greek parliament late in the session that will set the stage for Greece to either receive more bailout funding or head towards defaulting on its debt. Investors expect the former, so see less need to the relative safe-haven status of the greenback or U.S. Treasury’s, which also boosted stocks and commodities. “If the Greek confidence vote this evening passes, the better tone for risk should continue short term,” said Adam Cole, global head of foreign exchange strategy at RBC Capital Markets.

The euro EURUSD +0.55% climbed to $1.4382 from $1.4305 in late North American trading Monday.
The dollar index  DXY -0.32% , which measures the performance of the U.S. unit against a basket of six major currencies, fell to 74.692, compared to 75.043 late Monday.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Pushing against 1.4385 highs

Euro Dollar retreat from 1.4340 on Friday found support yesterday at 1.4190m, and the pair bounced up strongly as Greece fears eased, regaining lost ground, to consolidate on Tuesday between 1.4300 and 1.4385 high, which is being tested right ahead of Wall Street opening. Above 1.4375/80 (day highs), the pair might find resistance at 1.4430 (50-day SMA) and 1.4500 (Jun 14 highs) and 1.4550 (Jun 10 high). On the downside, immediate support lies at 1.4300/15 (day lows), and below here, 1.4190 (Jun 20 lows), and 1.4125 (Jun 17 lows). Likewise, the EUR/GBP retreat from Friday's high at 0.8855 bottomed at 0.8790 on Monday before bouncing up and extend on Tuesday to fresh 7-day highs at 0.8875. 

Forex: EUR/USD rebounds above 1.4300

Despite showing substantial weakness in the first half of the day given the failure of eurozone finance ministers to reach an agreement on Greece, the EUR/USD recently is bouncing back from a daily low near 1.4200 and currently trades as high as 1.4320. Writing for the FXstreet.com technical analysis team, Valeria Bednarik reported just prior: "Euro recovered ground in the last hours supported by hopes of an agreement that will give new funding to Greece. EUR/USD is approaching 1.4300 and is about to rise above the price it opened Sunday overnight. A break above could send the Euro higher, probably to test 1.4325/40 as hourly and 4-hours indicators favors the upside ahead of Wall Street opening." Bednarik adds: "Movements are likely to be limit on Monday, unless shocking newshit the wires. To the downside, the area around 1.4190/00 (60 SMA in 4-hours chart) is offering support to the Euro, a break below should trigger a bigger decline, probably to 1.4150/60; levels under are not seen for today but consolidation below 1.42 is likely to weaken the pair for the coming session."

Forex: EUR/USD Weekly Review

The Greek deficit crisis continued to plague sentiments and the EUR/USD might be steered in the coming week by the developments of this situation. In the previous EUR/USD Weekly Review, I mentioned that if the bearish pressure continued, we might see a 1.42. Indeed so, 1.42 was achieved and later served as a support level. From a technical point of view, we may see some consolidation as the currency pair finds its bearing between 1.42 and 1.44. Furthermore a short term down slope trendline is in the immediate price region. SMA 24 = almost flat SMA 48 = almost flat. The Simple Moving Averages above also suggest a technical consolidation as traders struggle to make sense of the currency pair's direction. This is also further suggested as the two moving averages flipped recently. Having said so, we all know that the fundamental reasons are a strong factor in a currency pair's movement too.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis 06.19 Looking For Upside

The pair is due for a volatile week as investors will likely be expecting some sort of resolution to the Greek sovereign debt crisis. The fact that the policy makers have so far failed to agree on how to solve the Greek saga has put considerable pressure on the currency and unless a compromise is found, the pair will continue to head south. Also, Greek PM is expected to seek a vote of confidence this week as he attempts to push through with reforms. In terms of macro-economic data, attention will be on the widely followed ZEW survey, Eurozone Current Account and also the Manufacturing/Services PMIs. Finally, technical studies indicate that support levels are seen at 1.4073, 1.3968 and then at the 21Day Lower Bollinger Band. On the other hand, resistance levels are seen at the 21DMA line at 1.4343 and then at the 10DMA line at 1.4407.

FOREX News: Worse Euro Crisis May Hit Swiss

Big Swiss banks have very little direct exposure to Greece but Switzerland may be affected if a Greek default destabilizes the whole financial system, the Swiss National Bank's vice chairman told a newspaper on Sunday. In remarks similar to those he made at the SNB's monetary policy review on Thursday and in the SNB's annual Financial Stability Report, Thomas Jordan said a domino effect brought about by a Greek debt restructuring likely would cause further upwards pressure on the Swiss currency. Concerns about debts in peripheral Euro Zone countries have repeatedly pushed the safe-haven Swiss franc to record peaks against the euro this year. Swiss exporters have complained their margins are suffering and the SNB has decided to leave rates ultra-low to keep a lid on the rising currency, running the risk of a bubble in the real estate market. "So long as only the peripheral countries are affected, the risk is limited," Thomas Jordan told the newspaper Der Sonntag. "But the big Swiss banks necessarily have many investments abroad, in particular in countries with big financial markets. If the whole financial system were affected, that would naturally have severe consequences for Switzerland." Switzerland had to bail out UBS during the financial crisis after it suffered big write downs and the government is now pushing tough capital standards for UBS and rival Credit Suisse that exceed the Basel III standards. In its report, issued last Thursday, the SNB said the banks' direct exposures to peripheral euro zone countries were relatively low, falling to 46 billion francs in 2010 from 60 billion in 2009, but they could face "considerable losses" if the contagion worsened. Echoing remarks made by SNB Chairman Philipp Hildebrand last year, Jordan said it was in Europe's interest to solve the debt problem quickly and effectively. "We're convinced that the European institutions will take appropriate measures that will prevent an escalation of the crisis," he said. Switzerland is not a member of the European Union but has funded part of the IMF's loan to Greece. "But also Switzerland has a big interest in the debt crisis not escalating. Via the exchange rate and demand for our exports we're very much affected by these developments." Between March 2009 and June 2010 the SNB intervened in markets to prevent an excessive appreciation of the franc against the euro. As a result of its interventions, the SNB ran up its biggest annual loss last year and Hildebrand has faced calls for his resignation.The SNB holds just over 80 percent of its foreign currency reserves in government fixed income. Of its bond holdings, 83 percent are in paper rated AAA, 14 percent in debt with a AA rating, 1 percent has only an A rating and 2 percent is in a category called 'other,' the SNB's website shows. In a separate article, Der Sonntag said the SNB held a very small amount of Greek debt. In January the SNB stopped accepting Irish government debt as collateral in its money market operations and stopped accepting Greek debt more than a year ago

Forex:EUR/USD retraces 61.8% of fall from near 1.45

EUR/USD has retraced 61.8% of the fall from ear 1.4500 earlier this week on the latest rally to 1.4336. Traders note very little interest to establish fresh positions ahead of a weekend in which a Greek confidence vote and a Eurogroup meeting are set to take place. Looks like short-covering will dominate. More stops are eyed above 1.4350/55.Risk on sentiment in most markets is helping keep lots of wind in the euro’s sales.

FOREX-Euro rebounds on Merkel,Sarkozy comments, Greek aid talk

Euro rallies after French, German meeting in Berlin

Market talk of larger bailout boosts single currency

Greek govt vote of confidence looms after reshuffle

The euro rose on Friday on speculation of a new Greek aid package and as Germany pledged to work with the European Central Bank to resolve the debt crisis, but it remained vulnerable to a sell-off in the absence of a concrete solution. The single currency rose 0.5 percent to a session high against the dollar of $1.4283, recovering smartly from a low of $1.4127 in late Asian trade. It also turned positive against the Swiss franc to reach 1.2121 francs, up from Thursday's record low of 1.1946, and rose 0.4 percent against sterling to reach 88.28 pence. It was also slightly firmer against the yen at 114.64 yen . German Chancellor Angela Merkel met with French President Nicholas Sarkozy on Friday and they afterwards told a news conference a solution had been agreed in line with the so-called "Vienna Initiative." Analysts said the comments were nothing new but European shares turned positive and Greek bond yields and CDS fell as risk appetite improved across the asset classes. "You could argue Merkel's acceptance of the Vienna initiative is somewhat of a climb down and we are moving closer to something more concrete," said Adrian Schmidt, FX strategist at Lloyds. "They are trying to create a positive spin but the issue is can they achieve a version that's acceptable to ratings agencies and the ECB." Under the "Vienna Initiative" for central and eastern Europe, international lenders agreed in 2009 to boost credit to the region and the main commercial banks in turn committed to maintain exposure and roll over credit lines. The single currency has been hampered in recent weeks by discord between the euro zone's paymaster Germany and the European Central Bank, backed by France. Germany has been insisting banks, pension funds and insurance firms that hold Greek debt swap their bonds for new ones with longer maturities. But fearful this solution could create a "credit event" that would prompt rating agencies to label Greece in default, the ECB, European Commission and France all favour a softer option in which holders of Greek bonds would be asked to buy new Greek debt as their holdings mature. Schmidt said investors were unlikely to sell into the euro rally as people did not want to hold positions over the weekend while event risk remained high.

AID SPECULATION

The euro was also boosted by a bout of short covering triggered by speculation of a new Greek aid package that would be larger than previously thought. Traders cited market talk of a 150 billion euro aid package for Greece although this could not be confirmed. "When you get sharp moves on market talk it captures the highly nervous market environment," said Audrey Childe-Freeman, head of currency strategy at JP Morgan Private Bank. "Yesterday was very much doom and gloom and we are bound to see some bounces back but until we get a firm conclusion about the Greek situation the market will remain suspicious." Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said Euro zone finance ministers will decide at a meeting on Sunday to disburse the next tranche of emergency loans to Greece in early July and decide on the new three-year bailout on July 11. The Greek cabinet, reshuffled on Friday, will face a vote of confidence by Tuesday night. The political moves could be another potential flashpoint in a country already beset by fierce anti-austerity strikes. Markets will keep a close eye on the Monday's meeting and the Greek vote for further clues on how policymakers will proceed in dealing with the debt crisis. The euro's bounce saw the dollar index cede ground. It was last down 0.8 percent at 75.156 while against the yen, the greenback was down 0.4 percent at 80.27 yen. The slight improvement in risk appetite boosted the commodity currencies, pushing the Australian dollar up 0.5 percent to $1.0612. The New Zealand dollar also rose 0.4 percent to $0.8082.

Forex New's: Euro Plunges Amid Greek Fears‎

The euro tumbled to a fresh all-time low against the Swiss franc as anxiety over Greece's debt situation intensified, and other currencies seen as risky bets also fell. The turmoil in Greece overshadowed a slew of better-than-expected U.S. data. The euro was at $1.4129 early in New York trading, down from $1.4181 late Wednesday in New York. The dollar fell to ¥80.83 compared with ¥80.95, while the euro was at ¥114.20 compared with ¥114.80. The pound was trading at $1.6121 compared with $1.6193. Deepening worries about Greece's debt crisis and the possibility of contagion to other euro-zone countries briefly pushed the euro below $1.41 for the first time in three weeks. "The risk of the Greek crisis spiralling out of control has increased markedly," said Société Générale strategists in a note to clients. Concerns intensified as the Greek political outlook deteriorated Wednesday amid violent protests against cost-cutting measures. Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou said he would reorganize his cabinet then call for a vote of confidence in parliament after failing to reach an agreement with opposition parties on austerity measures demanded in exchange for new bailout by euro-zone nations and the International Monetary Fund. Two Greek lawmakers, including one seen as a candidate to replace the finance minister, resigned Thursday. Casting doubt on whether the IMF will deliver its expected aid, Zhu Min, a senior adviser to the fund said he is "very concerned" by the situation in Greece, adding that developments have taken a drastic turn for the worse in the last 24 hours. Adding to the negative tone were comments from European Central Bank Governing Council member Nout Wellink that the European Financial Stability Facility might have to be doubled in size to €1.5 trillion ($2.127 trillion) to secure private-sector support for a second Greek aid package and to cover potential risks from Ireland and Portugal. The cost of insuring against the risk of a Greek default rocketed, as investors started to weigh the chances of nonpayment. "With concerns about risks of a disorderly conclusion to the Greek crisis ratcheting ever higher, ahead of tomorrow's key Angela Merkel-Nicolas Sarkozy summit, the focus will be on Athens where Mr. Papandreou will seek to form a new cabinet and survive a parliamentary confidence vote," said Chris Scicluna of Daiwa Capital Markets. As soon as the Greek crisis is resolved, currency markets will move back to looking at fundamentals, said Peter Kinsella, a foreign-exchange strategist at Commerzbank in London. "In that case, you're looking at the ECB that is still hiking interest rates and the Fed that is more or less likely to keep rates on hold until at least the third quarter of 2012," he said, adding that in such a situation it's unlikely the euro could fall much further against the dollar. For now, though, a jittery tone persists. More broadly, the pound and commodity-linked currencies of Canada, New Zealand and Australia were also knocked down by the Greek situation, while the market's premium safe refuges in times of stress, notably the yen and Swiss franc, gained ground. The euro traded as low as 1.1957 Swiss francs—its lowest level on record—after the Swiss National Bank on Thursday delayed reining in its expansive monetary policy, even as it warns of a budding housing market bubble. It stood at 1.2004 francs early in the New York day. "The SNB offered no clear signs regarding a rate hike," said Commerzbank's Mr. Kinsella. "One important point though is they mentioned the residential real-estate sector is possibly overheating and one tool of dealing with that is increasing interest rates," he added.