Saturday, June 11, 2011

Twinblade 5 Min Trading System for Scalping

I recently came across this strategy, it works relatively good. This is great system for people looking to Scalp the market for short gains 10-15Pip's with 10-15SL max. OK 1st thing you may know, Japan yens have a correlation, especially with the Euro-Yen and Pound-Yen. So we are going to use these 2 pairs together since they really act like twin sisters.
Entry/Exit rules for Buy trade
Buy Entry - Wait for blue Heineken Ashi candle + green dot + make sure the green RSI is crossed over the Pink base line.
Buy Exit - If red Heineken Ashi candle forms or if Pink dot appears or if Green RSI crossed below the Pink Base Line.

Entry/Exit rules for Sell trade
Sell Entry - Wait for red Heineken Ashi candle + Pink dot + make sure the
Green RSI is crossed below the Pink base line.
Sell Exit - If Blued Heineken Ashi candle forms or if Green dot appears or if Green RSI crossed above the Pink Base Line.
 
Stoploss & Targets
No recommendation for stoploss, thats is up to you. For Targets, If you want you can wait for the exit terms and eat the whole pie or if you want you can hit n run 10-20pips on every trade signal and take bites, its all up to you.

Friday, June 10, 2011

FOREX NEWS: EUR/USD DOWN ON ECONOMIC DATA

The Euro was lower against the U.S. Dollar on Friday after the release of U.S. data on Federal Budget Balance. EUR/USD was trading at 1.4345, down 1.14% at time of writing. The pair was likely to find support at 1.4323, today’s low, and resistance at 1.4696, Tuesday’s high. Earlier in the day, official data showed that The U.S. federal budget balance fell less-than-expected to a seasonally adjusted -57.6B last month from -40.4B in the preceding month whose figure was revised up from -40.5B. Analysts had expected U.S. federal budget balance to fall to -125.0B last month. Meanwhile, the Euro was down against the British Pound and the Japanese Yen, with EUR/GBP shedding 0.33% to hit 0.8837 and EUR/JPY falling 1.22% to hit 115.19.
Euro dollar possibilities:
Continues its downfall many hours after Trichet's press conference.The split in Europe around a solution for Greece is just huge and time is running out. In the meantime, signs of a slowdown come from Germany and France. How will the week end? Here's a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and what's going on in the markets.





EUR/USD DAILY FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS OUTLOOK

The EUR/USD moved heavily on Thursday as investors finally heard the magic phrase from Trichet, yet to the surprise of many was the euro’s strong downside move on the signaled rate hike! The euro sustained the gains most Thursday until the press conference following the decision. The ECB did in fact leave rates steady at 1.25% while Trichet signaled a move in July with the infamous phrase “strong vigilance”. We saw the common currency spike only instantly on the remark and then surrender the gains. The downside move was pressured by a number of factors, yet the dominant theme is that Trichet did not provide a strong motive for gains other than a rate hike almost fully priced in the market. Investors started to rationalize the move with the downgraded outlook for growth and inflation and for the expectations that the ECB will not continue the rapid monetary tightening. Yet truth be told, the euro has been moving higher the past two weeks on those expectations and ignored all the ongoing instability and the debt crisis. On Friday the focus will remain on the euro’s move and how much correction does it still need as the currency now returns to hover in a Greek-centric-mode until next week’s Ecofin meeting. Investors will keep eyeing the Greek developments especially as the German lower house is expected to draft the guidelines accepted for Merkel and the finance minister to discuss as part of the Greek aid. Yet all in all, the volatility will remain high. From Germany we have the final CPI estimate for May at 06:00 GMT and expected unrevised at 2.4% annual gain in EU harmonized terms and with 0.2% monthly drop. From the United States we await the slightly effecting import price index at 12:30 and expected down 0.7% in May from 2.2% rise. As for at 18:00 GMT we have the Monthly Budget Statement for May and expected with a widening deficit to 150 billion from 135.9 billion. The volatility is to be seen with the end of the week trading and after the strong move on Thursday. Investors will also be cautious as the market opens to many banking holidays in Europe and ahead of the Ecofin meeting that is expected to discuss the second Greek bailout and accordingly the EUR/USD might continue to fluctuate heavily and even with the euro’s losses we still see overall room for gains.


Thursday, June 9, 2011

EUR NEWS:Central Banks in Europe Hold Rates Steady

The European Central Bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged Thursday, but was expected to signal that markets should expect a move next month — despite the euro area’s uneven economic recovery. The Bank of England, meanwhile, kept its main interest rate at a record low amid concerns that the country’s economy is still too weak to cope with higher borrowing costs. It did not issue a statement. Jean-Claude Trichet, the E.C.B. president, was to hold his regular news conference at 2:30 p.m. Frankfurt time. Analysts and economists predicted he would say that the bank is “strongly vigilant” toward inflation. That language would indicate a rate increase in July is probable, though the bank always leaves its options open. On Thursday, the E.C.B. left its rate at 1.25 percent, after raising it in April from 1 percent, the first increase in two years. The benchmark rate in Britain was left at 0.5 percent and the central bank also kept the size of its asset purchase plan unchanged at £200 billion, or about $328 billion. With Germany, the euro-zone’s largest economy, growing so quickly that some economists fear overheating, the E.C.B. has been trying to nudge interest rates back to levels that would be normal in an upturn. But the bank faces a policymaking dilemma because the Greek debt crisis still threatens growth in the 17-member euro area as a whole. Economies in Spain, Ireland and other so-called peripheral countries remain sluggish. Higher rates could make it that much harder for those countries to recover. The economy also remains fragile in Britain. Consumer confidence took a hit in April as more people claimed unemployment benefits and real wage increases lag inflation, weighing on living standards. Spending cuts and tax increases that are part of the government’s austerity program made households even more reluctant to spend. “The story of weak growth is still going to continue for a while,” James Knightley, a senior economist at ING Financial Markets in London, said. Some economists had predicted rates would rise in May this year, but as the economic outlook deteriorated have pushed that back to next February. Mr. Knightley expects an increase as early as November this year. The British economy stagnated in the six months until the end of March. The Bank of England governor Mervyn King has warned that inflation could accelerate to about 5 percent in the short term before falling again. Higher consumer prices, partly a result of higher commodity prices, have started to dampen household spending as companies remain reluctant to hire and banks continue to hold back on lending. Paul Fisher, a Bank of England official, argued last week that raising interest rates should be delayed until the economy was stronger. The International Monetary Fund on Monday backed Prime Minister David Cameron’s plan to cut the budget deficit, which had been criticized by the opposition Labor Party as too strict and harming the economic recovery.



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EUR/USD DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OUTLOOK: TRADING AT LOWER RANGE

Euro Dollar lost ground and couldn’t get back up after the split between European leaders is becoming more obvious and is preventing a decisive solution. Tension is mounting towards the all-important press conference by Jean-Claude Trichet. Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and what’s going on in the markets. The EUR/USD pair fell hard during the Wednesday session. The pair is finding that the current levels are a bit lofty, but isn’t necessarily a sell as the 1.45 needs to be retested before we can feel that we are on firm footing. The pair is subject to major headline risk, so this consolidation area will not last long, of this we can be sure. We are looking to buy above 1.47, or sell below the 1.45 support area.



Tuesday, June 7, 2011

WORLD FOREX: Dollar Falls On Risk Appetite, Chinese Concerns


As risk appetite rose and doubts about Chinese buying of Treasurys surfaced, traders pushed the dollar down against most rivals Tuesday. The dollar was first hit after a report quoted a Chinese official as saying China is nervous about carrying too much dollar-denominated debt and that the dollar could fall. The official later claimed he was only expressing his private views, but the damage was done. The U.S. currency fell to a one-month low versus the euro and a new record low against the Swiss franc. The ICE Dollar index--a basket of currencies against the dollar--also hit a one-month low. Meanwhile, the euro hit its highest level against the Japanese yen since May 5 as risk appetite increased. "The dollar has failed to benefit from risk aversion last week, and now we are quickly heading towards fresh U.S. dollar lows in a number of crosses," said Jens Nordvig, head of G10 Foreign Exchange with Nomura Securities in New York. Nordvig added many investors had bet on the dollar due to risk aversion. "But if risk aversion is moderate, and driven mainly by weaker U.S. data, then it is unlikely to benefit the dollar much." But more trouble could await the dollar later this week. The European Central Bank will meet Thursday, and President Jean-Claude Trichet is expected to signal the ECB could raise rates in the coming months, perhaps as soon as next month, adding to the euro's yield advantage. However, not signaling a rate hike at the next meeting, could trigger some pullback in the euro. Late Tuesday, the euro was at $1.4690 from $1.4575 late Friday, according to EBS via CQG. The dollar was at Y80.10 from Y80.10, while the euro was at Y117.65 from Y116.80. The U.K. pound was at $1.6449 from $1.6355. The dollar was at CHF0.8363 from CHF0.8347. The ICE Dollar Index, which tracks the U.S. dollar against a basket of currencies, was at 73.533 from about 73.952. Douglas Borthwick, head of trading and managing director at U.S.-based Faros Trading, noted that a weak dollar is to be expected. "Despite a focus on more peripheral European concerns," he said, the euro "will rally as more market participants focus on the growth in 95% of Europe." The U.S. currency also will face scrutiny from signs of a sagging economic outlook. "Markets have been and continue to be more cautious," Vassili Serebriakov, currency strategist with Well Fargo said. "It's due in part to the recent data and evidence of a slower U.S. recovery."


EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS REPORT 06.07

EUR/USD: The market is once again very well bid with the latest gains managing to accelerate beyond resistance in the lower 1.4500’s and into the 1.4600’s thus far. From here, we still retain an overall bearish bias, but would look for gains to potentially extend some more towards the 78.6% fib retrace off of the major 1.4940-1.3970 move by 1.4730 before considering the possibility for bearish resumption. Back below 1.4450 would now be required to relieve immediate topside pressures.

Monday, June 6, 2011

EUR/USD: DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OUTLOOK

The euro hovered near a one-month high against the dollar on Monday, boosted by progress over Greek debt financing and a potential widening of interest rate differentials, enticing hedge funds to buy the single currency. The euro has jumped almost 4 percent in the past three weeks as Greece has inched closer to securing fresh aid to stave off the threat of a default. The EU and IMF have made clear a new bailout package, which would replace a 110 billion euro deal agreed only a year ago, depends on Athens keeping to its promises for further austerity and accelerated privatisations. A new package might cost more than 100 billion euros ($144 billion), German news magazine Der Spiegel said. Despite no long-term solution in sight for the euro zone's debt crisis, the euro is seen rising ahead of the European Central Bank's policy meeting on Thursday, when the bank is expected to prepare markets for an interest rate hike in July. Such an outcome would widen rate differentials in the euro zone's favour. "We believe that the ECB is set to signal on Thursday that the next rate hike will be in July and this positive interest rate dynamic will continue to help the euro," said Elsa Lignos, currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets. The common currency rose to a one-month high in Asia of $1.4659 . It last stood at $1.4650, up 0.1 percent from Friday's close. Traders said hedge funds were keen buyers of the euro in early European trade, while stop-loss orders were at $1.4670/80.
Technical analysts highlighted resistance at $1.4710 -- the 76.4 percent retracement of the euro's decline in May. But given the negative sentiment building against the dollar, some analysts are targeting a move to $1.50 in coming weeks. "The provisos are that U.S. equity markets fail to undergo a deeper correction and that Greece's political opposition does not scupper fresh austerity measures," BNP Paribas strategists wrote in a report. "A move higher towards our target of 1.5000 also requires that the ECB issue the requisite codeword signalling July tightening after Thursday's Council meeting."
Many expect the central bank to sound hawkish on inflation after its policy meeting and to use the key phrase "strong vigilance", which usually flags a coming hike. Speculators slashed their net long euro position in the international monetary market to a fifth of what it was a month ago -- another factor suggesting that the common currency may have room to rebound further.

EUR-OUTLOOK; Euro Touches One-Month High on Optimism EU Will Support Greece

The euro touched a one-month high versus the dollar on prospects European Union officials will reiterate their intention to prepare a new aid package for Greece, easing concern over the region's debt crisis.
The single currency also gained versus the Swiss franc before a report that may show producer-price inflation in the trading bloc held near a 2-1/2 year high in April, backing the case for the European Central Bank to increase borrowing costs. The greenback rebounded from a one-month low versus the yen while the Canadian dollar declined against all 16 major peers on speculation that signs of stalling growth in the U.S. will damp demand for the higher-yielding currency.
"The turning point was Greece, and we can suggest Greece is out of the way for the short term," said Kurt Magnus, executive director of currency sales at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Sydney. "There'll be fresh impetus to buy euro this week."
The euro climbed to $1.4658, the strongest since May 5, before reversing gains to $1.4625 as of 9:10 a.m. in London from $1.4635 in New York on June 3. The 17-nation currency was at 117.30 yen from 117.48. The dollar bought 80.19 yen from 80.34 last week, when it dropped to 80.05, the weakest since May 5.

Sunday, June 5, 2011

EUR/USD Weekly Technical Outlook

EUR/USD's rise from 1.3969 extended further to as high as 1.4624 last week and remained firms. As noted before, pull back from 1.4938 should have completed at 1.3969 already. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for retesting 1.4938 first. Break will confirm up trend resumption for 1.5143 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.4450 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations before staging another rally. In the bigger picture, EUR/USD is still trading above medium term trend line support from 1.1875 (now at 1.3557) and thus, rise from there should still be in progress. We'd continue to favor the bullish case that correction from 1.6039 has completed with three waves down to 1.1875 already and. Above 1.4938 will target 1.5143 resistance first. Break will affirm the bullish case of long term up trend resumption for another high above 1.6039. However, sustained trading below the mentioned trend line support will indicate that there should at least be one more medium term decline, possibly for below 1.1875, before correction from 1.6039 completes.

In the long term picture, correction from 1.6039 might have completed at 1.1875 already. Meanwhile, up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 might be resuming. Break of 1.5143 resistance will affirm this case and should pave the wave through 2008 high of 1.6039 to 61.8% projection of 0.8223 to 1.6039 from 1.1875 at 1.6705.

Greece to ask banks to boost capital ratios: report

The Bank of Greece, the country's central bank, plans to ask banks to boost their capital adequacy ratio to ease market fears over the impact of a haircut on Greek government bonds they hold, a Greek newspaper said on Sunday. Battered by the country's debt crisis, Greek lenders have lost access to interbank funding and became dependent on the European Central Bank (ECB) for liquidity. Central bank authorities want to gradually wean them off this facility. "The head of the Bank of Greece, after the results of stress tests at the end of June will ask banks to strengthen their Core Tier 1 ratios," Kathimerini newspaper said, citing banking sources. The minimum ratio of Core Tier 1 equity and reserves capital to risk-weighted assets the central bank will require will depend on the haircut assumption it will make as regards bank's holdings of Greek government bonds. It said the central bank believes a stronger equity base may make banks' return to wholesale funding markets easier and limit their recourse to eurosystem facilities as Athens implements a fiscal plan agreed with its international lenders. So far, National Bank and Piraeus Bank have already boosted their capital with cash calls and EFG Eurobank has sold most of its stake in Polish subsidiary Polbank to Raiffeisen. Alpha Bank also plans a convertible bond and a rights offering of up to 2.5 billion euros and will seek shareholder approval at its June 21 annual meeting. Banks that find it hard to beef up their capital to meet the new requirement may have to turn to the Financial Stability Fund (FSF) -- a 10 billion euro safety net set up to support the country's lenders, the paper said. With rising bad loans, continued sovereign debt downgrades and a protracted recession taking a toll on Greek banks, authorities set up the FSF to be ready to provide capital. Funded in stages up to 10 billion euros, the FSF is part of a 110 billion euro emergency loan package that debt-laden Greece secured from the IMF and its euro zone partners last year to avoid default. Banks can get capital injections by issuing preferred shares to the FSF. ECB funding to Greek banks reached 87.9 billion euros ($128 billion) in March, easing 2.8 percent from the previous month. ECB funding almost doubled to 97.6 billion euros in 2010.