Monday, June 6, 2011

EUR/USD: DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OUTLOOK

The euro hovered near a one-month high against the dollar on Monday, boosted by progress over Greek debt financing and a potential widening of interest rate differentials, enticing hedge funds to buy the single currency. The euro has jumped almost 4 percent in the past three weeks as Greece has inched closer to securing fresh aid to stave off the threat of a default. The EU and IMF have made clear a new bailout package, which would replace a 110 billion euro deal agreed only a year ago, depends on Athens keeping to its promises for further austerity and accelerated privatisations. A new package might cost more than 100 billion euros ($144 billion), German news magazine Der Spiegel said. Despite no long-term solution in sight for the euro zone's debt crisis, the euro is seen rising ahead of the European Central Bank's policy meeting on Thursday, when the bank is expected to prepare markets for an interest rate hike in July. Such an outcome would widen rate differentials in the euro zone's favour. "We believe that the ECB is set to signal on Thursday that the next rate hike will be in July and this positive interest rate dynamic will continue to help the euro," said Elsa Lignos, currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets. The common currency rose to a one-month high in Asia of $1.4659 . It last stood at $1.4650, up 0.1 percent from Friday's close. Traders said hedge funds were keen buyers of the euro in early European trade, while stop-loss orders were at $1.4670/80.
Technical analysts highlighted resistance at $1.4710 -- the 76.4 percent retracement of the euro's decline in May. But given the negative sentiment building against the dollar, some analysts are targeting a move to $1.50 in coming weeks. "The provisos are that U.S. equity markets fail to undergo a deeper correction and that Greece's political opposition does not scupper fresh austerity measures," BNP Paribas strategists wrote in a report. "A move higher towards our target of 1.5000 also requires that the ECB issue the requisite codeword signalling July tightening after Thursday's Council meeting."
Many expect the central bank to sound hawkish on inflation after its policy meeting and to use the key phrase "strong vigilance", which usually flags a coming hike. Speculators slashed their net long euro position in the international monetary market to a fifth of what it was a month ago -- another factor suggesting that the common currency may have room to rebound further.