Saturday, July 16, 2011

US dollar: Moody's helps deal a double blow

The euro dollar exchange rate is 0.396% higher on the day with 1 EUR = 1.4201 USD at 9 AM in London. The pound dollar exchange rate is 0.087% higher with 1 GBP = 1.6118 USD. The dollar exchange rate was dealt a double blow over the past 12 hours. Moody’s put the US sovereign rating on review for a possible downgrade, citing a lack of progress in negotiations on raising the US debt ceiling. The dollar sold off in response, and losses were especially pronounced against the JPY and the CHF. Earlier, Fed Chairman Bernanke’s testimony to Congress set a relatively dovish tone and comments suggesting that the option for further
stimulus remains open stoked fears of another round of QE. Bernanke’s speech largely repeated themes from his June 22 comments but the Fed is clearly keeping an open stance on policy until a significant trend in data emerges. "While Fed Chairman Bernanke's Congressional testimony stuck largely to a familiar script on the still cautious outlook, markets were quick to react when he explicitly mentioned the possibility of further quantitative easing. What was overlooked were his remarks about Fed research suggesting that QE2 may only have lowered long-term interest rates by 10-30bp and raised jobs by some 30k per month. If this is all QE2 could do, why would another round of QE hold much promise for the economy? For further details, please see “What Promise In QE3?” says Gareth Berry at UBS. Elsewhere, the euro shook off uncertainty over the timing of a potential emergency meeting in the Eurozone and a Fitch downgrade of Greece. EURUSD traded 1.4131-1.4282. USDJPY traded 78.47-79.61. Eurozone core CPI and US jobless claims are due.