Wednesday, June 22, 2011

EUR/USD Technical Outlook: Mid-Day Outlook

With 1.4290 minor support intact, intraday bias remains cautiously on the upside and further rise should be seen to upper trend line resistance (now at 1.4593). Note that EUR/USD is possibly forming a triangle pattern inside converging range of 1.3969/4939. An upside break out will be mildly in favor as long as 1.3969 support holds. Further break of 1.4695 resistance will be the first signal of up trend resumption for another high above 1.4939. On the downside, though, below 1.4190 minor support will turn bias neutral first. Further break of 1.4073 will flip bias back to the downside for 1.3969 and below instead.
In the bigger picture, EUR/USD is still trading above medium term trend line support from 1.1875 (now at 1.3606) and thus, rise from there should still be in progress. We'd continue to favor the bullish case that correction from 1.6039 has completed with three waves down to 1.1875 already and. Above 1.4938 will target 1.5143 resistance first. Break will affirm the bullish case of long term up trend resumption for another high above 1.6039. However, sustained trading below the mentioned trend line support will indicate that there should at least be one more medium term decline, possibly for below 1.1875, before correction from 1.6039 completes.