UR/USD: Wave (B) ended at 1.5145 and wave I of (C) ended at 1.1876
Although the single currency recovered initially last week, renewed selling interest did emerge as expected (we recommended to sell euro again at 1.4400) and has fallen again from 1.4442, indicated downside target at 1.4150 has been met later last week (with 250 points profit) and price fell to as low as 1.4103 today. We are keeping our view that rebound from 1.3970 has ended at 1.4696 and bearishness remains for another decline later, a break of support at 1.4073 would extend weakness to 1.4000 but break of 1.3970 support is needed to confirm decline from 1.4940 top has resumed and extend weakness towards 1.3900 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2860-1.4940).
Our preferred count on the daily chart remains that a wave (II) from 1.2329 ended at 1.5145 with A-leg ended at 1.4720, followed by wave B at 1.2457, the wave C from there was also a 3 legged move and is labeled as (a): 1.3739, (b): 1.2885, the wave iii of the 5-waver (c) from 1.2885 has ended at 1.4339 and wave iv is a triangle ended at 1.3878 and wave v formed a top at 1.5145.
The decline from there is a 5-waver (C) with minor wave (i) of I of (C) ended at 1.4218 with wave (ii) ended at 1.4580, wave (iii) ended at 1.3267 and wave (iv) ended at 1.3692 and wave (v) ended at 1.1876, this is also the low of wave I of (C) and wave II has commenced from there with (a) leg ended at 1.3334, (b) leg ended at 1.2588 and (c) leg ended at 1.4283 which is only the first set of a complex correction wave II, followed by wave (x) at 1.2860, hence, 2nd wave (a) has ended at 1.4940 and correction in 2nd (b) to 1.3900 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2860 to 1.4940) would be seen.
On the upside, whilst initial recovery to 1.4300 cannot be ruled out, said resistance at 1.4442 should limit upside and bring another decline later. Only a daily close above 1.4498 would dampen our bearishness and prolong consolidation, risk gain to 1.4550/60 and possibly 1.4600. Looking ahead, a sustained breach of 1.4696 is needed to signal the retreat from 1.4940 has ended at 1.3968 and further gain to 1.4800 would follow. Looking ahead, above 1.4800 is needed to signal (b) leg has ended at 1.3968 and bring a retest of 1.4940, otherwise, the (b) leg shall take more time to unfold and another retreat in c leg of (b) would take place.
