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The euro hit a four-week high at one point on Wednesday, supported by hopes for a fresh aid deal for Greece, but concerns that any deal would only be a temporary fix kept the currency's gains in check.
The dollar slipped to a fresh record low against the Swiss franc, as deteriorating U.S. economic data put pressure on the greenback, contrasting with upbeat readings of the Swiss manufacturing and retail sectors, which boosted the franc. The euro has risen more than 3 percent from a two-month low against the dollar struck on May 23, on expectations that Greece will put in place austerity measures and go ahead with plans to privatise assets to ensure aid flowing from the IMF. Whether Athens gets the fifth, 12 billion euro tranche of aid under its 110 billion euro EU/IMF bailout will depend on a meeting of senior EU finance officials underway in Vienna and also on a meeting of euro zone finance ministers to be held soon. "A deal for Greece would be a temporary stopgap that pushes the day of reckoning further down the road," said Lee Hardman, currency strategist at BTM-UFJ. "We think the euro is overvalued given the weak fundamentals in the euro zone and believe levels above $1.45 will be aggressively sold into," he added. The euro traded close to flat for the day around $1.4400 after rising to a four-week high of $1.4448 in early European trade. Dealers said a large option barrier at $1.4450 capped further gains. Near-term resistance looms at $1.4454, a 50 percent retracement of a slide from its early May peak above $1.4940 to a two-month trough of $1.3968 hit last week. Traders then reported offers at $1.4480/1.4500. The euro was dented after German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung said it is now considered certain that the IMF will not pay its share of a fifth tranche of aid to Greece at the end of June. It did not cite any sources. The euro showed little reaction to soft euro zone PMI data which showed growth slowing in the manufacturing sector. Investors are more focused on a European Central Bank meeting next week when investors expect policymakers to signal a rate hike in July. "We are getting to a situation where markets are getting a feel that the European policymakers will get Greece back on track," said Audrey Childe-Freeman, EMEA head of currency strategy at JP Morgan Private Bank. "All the euro needs to gain further is a hawkish signal from (Jean-Claude) Trichet next week."
DOLLAR SLIPS, FRANC BUOYED
The dollar remained under pressure after a batch of weak U.S. data on Tuesday raised concerns that the U.S. economy's soft patch could become protracted. The key Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index is due to be released on Wednesday, along with a private sector ADP jobs survey ECONUS. Analysts say a weak manufacturing number, as forecast, could drive U.S. yields lower and weigh on the dollar. The dollar skidded over 1 percent to a record low against the Swiss franc of 0.8442 franc after a stronger-than-expected reading of Swiss PMI and bumper retail sales data triggered stop-loss buying of the Swiss currency. The euro also fell 1 percent to 1.2160 francs EURCHF=. "We suspect that the dollar could continue to underperform across the board in the current environment given that more evidence that the global recovery is losing momentum could corroborate market expectations of more Fed accommodation going forward," said Valentin Marinov, strategist at Citi.
