FOREX-Euro holds near 1-mth high vs dlr before U.S. jobs-BOOKED+450 PIPS

Took a trade today based on Non-Farm Payroll News. We entered the market two hours after news release. Entry point was around 1.45820- Took profit at 1.46262.  Booked about 450 Pip. 


Key to our trade: Support/Resistance broke through at 4week high, gave us entry, also EMA Cross indicated the trend direction.

EUR/USD: The dollar immediately sank in the wake of poor non-farm payrolls data that fueled concern over the state of the U.S. economy. A Dow Jones poll of economists anticipated May non-farm payrolls to have risen by 160,000 in May from a month ago but the data showed a rise of only 54,000. The U.S. currency traded off even after expectations were scaled back for the closely-watched jobs indicator in recent days. A slew of poor U.S. data and a dismal ADP Employer Services report Wednesday preceded Friday's report. Adding downward pressure on the dollar, Moody's Investors Service warned Thursday it might place the U.S. government's debt rating under review for a possible downgrade as early as next month. 

US Non Farm Payrolls Ahead

U.S. Dollar Trading (US) despite no reversal in stock markets the USD came under heavy selling pressure on a combination of negative news and weak US data. Moody’s warned that the US could be put on negative review if the debt ceiling issue is not resolved. Weekly Jobless claims at 422k vs. 415k forecast. In US stocks, DJIA -41 points closing at 12248, S&P -1 points closing at 1313 and NASDAQ +4 points closing at 2773. Looking ahead, May NFP forecast at 150k vs. 244k previously. The Unemployment Rate forecast at 8.9% vs. 9% previously. May ISM Services forecast at 54 vs. 52.8 previously.

The Euro (EUR) was the strongest currency in the market able to rebound to fresh multi week highs on talk a Greece solution was close. This combined with the US Debt rating news to help the EUR/USD break above 1.4500. ECB President Trichet spoke overnight about the possibility of a single EU Finance Ministry. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4323 and a high of 1.4515 before closing the day around 1.4500 in the New York session. Looking ahead, May EU PMI Services forecast unchanged at 55.4.

WORLD FOREX: Dollar Falls Vs Euro On US Econ Pessimism

The euro edged up against the dollar on Thursday in Asia as recent weak U.S. economic indicators prompted investors to speculate that the Federal Reserve may end up taking additional easing measures in the months ahead. U.S. data released Wednesday by the Institute for Supply Management showed its manufacturing purchasing managers' index fell to 53.5 in May from 60.4 in April, below the 57.0 expected.

Separately, private-sector jobs in the U.S. rose by just 38,000 last month, according to a national employment report published by payroll giant Automatic Data Processing and consultancy Macroeconomic Advisers. The consensus forecast was for a 190,000 gain. The result bodes ill for Friday's much-anticipated non-farm payrolls data. Traders said market participants are increasingly pessimistic about the U.S. outlook as some of them even started to speculate that the Fed may go ahead with further quantitative easing measures in the months ahead. If the U.S. data to be released over the coming days, such as Friday's jobs data, turn out to be weaker than expected, "speculation over a QE3 program will balloon, damaging the dollar. As of 0450 GMT, the euro was at $1.4365 from $1.4334 in New York on Wednesday and Y116.29 from Y115.99. The dollar, meanwhile, is at Y80.94 from Y80.96. The ICE Dollar Index, which tracks the U.S. dollar against a basket of currencies, was at about 74.767 from 74.844.